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The research arm of BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, shifted its view on Japanese equities to neutral from underweight. "We are looking for more evidence of corporate reform to support the enthusiasm for its equity markets that has gripped foreign investors so far this year," wrote analysts at BlackRock Investment Institute, in its mid-year outlook report last week. "It's not the case that we've already seen the completion of offshore investors' quite aggressive investment in Japan equity markets," said Nomura's chief equity strategist for Japan, Yunosuke Ikeda. "Now, a lot of asset owners have decided just not to invest in China any more, and that's made Japan the top dog in Asia." Many analysts and investors, though, consider the declines a healthy and necessary retracement before the next leg higher, with 35,000 often touted as a target for this year as slower-moving foreign investors start to buy in size.

Persons: Nomura, It's, Yunosuke Ikeda, Archie Ciganer, Rowe Price, Ciganer, that's, Warren Buffett, Vikas Pershad, Kevin Buckland, Ankur Banerjee, Junko Fujita, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Nikkei, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nomura Securities, Graphics, G Investments, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, BlackRock, China, Asia, Tokyo, Singapore

Companies United States of America FollowJune 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices traded up on Tuesday on bargain hunting, recovering some ground from the previous day's plunge, but gains were limited as investors remained cautious ahead of key policy decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks. Oil prices could fall further because of China's faltering economic recovery, he added, predicting WTI would trade in the range of $62.50 to $75 a barrel during the summer, but mainly below $70 a barrel. Most market participants expect the U.S. central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting. The Fed's rate hikes have strengthened the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and weighing on prices. "In our view, the latest fall in oil prices increases the probability Saudi Arabia will at least extend supply cuts currently in place for July," said National Australia Bank analysts in a note.

Persons: Tatsufumi Okoshi, Nomura's Okoshi, Yuka Obayashi, Emily Chow, Jamie Freed, Sonali Paul Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, . West Texas, Nomura Securities, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, of Petroleum Exporting, International Energy Agency, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: States, America, Saudi Arabia, U.S, China, Saudi, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ Japan's Nikkei hits highest since July 1990 on weak yen, US optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, May 29 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share average rose on Monday to its highest level since July 1990, buoyed by optimism over a U.S. debt ceiling deal and a weaker yen. "The Nikkei crossed the psychological 31,500 mark on Monday, but in the end that level proved a bit too heavy," she said. "This week, I expect the Nikkei to steadily advance, but with short-term retracements to check its speed." The broader Topix (.TOPX) rose as high as 2,175.13, but failed to get close to last week's 33-year high at 2,188.66. Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Himani Sarkar, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Sohini GoswamiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Japan's Nikkei share average rises to highest since July 1990
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, May 29 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share average rose on Monday to its highest level since July 1990, buoyed by optimism over a U.S. debt ceiling deal and a weaker yen. "The Nikkei crossed the psychological 31,500 mark today, but in the end that level proved a bit too heavy," she said. "This week, I expect the Nikkei to steadily advance, but with short-term retracements to check its speed." The broader Topix (.TOPX) rose as high as 2,175.13, but failed to get close to last week's 33-year high at 2,188.66. Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Himani Sarkar, Muralikumar Anantharaman and Sherry Jacob-PhillipsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Japan's Nikkei powers to 1990 'bubble' era high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO, May 19 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share average rallied on Friday to the highest since August 1990, the country's so-called "bubble" era, driven by a confluence of positive factors from strong earnings to optimism over a U.S. debt ceiling deal. The broader Topix (.TOPX), which had reached the post-bubble milestone on Tuesday, extended its climb to as high as 2,171.37. Foreign buying thanks to increased investment by Warren Buffett and a push for better corporate governance by the Tokyo Stock Exchange also provided some impetus. The Nikkei had rocketed 6.2% from the May 10 close - when sweeping rally began - to reach Friday's high. "Investors are going to spend today thinking hard about whether this Nikkei rally will continue," said Kazuo Kamitami, an equity strategist at Nomura Securities.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead US. consumer price data to test feared stagflation scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some also believe the recent banking sector tumult will hurt lending and further constrain growth, forcing the Fed to cut rates before inflation is tamed. April’s survey of global fund managers from BoFA Global Research showed stagflation expectations near historical highs, with 86% saying it will be part of the macroeconomic backdrop in 2024. Next week’s consumer price data for April, due on Wednesday, May 10, could offer a clearer picture of whether the Fed’s interest rate increases are cooling inflation. Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset macro strategy at Nomura Securities, pointed to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate, which is projecting a 2.7% growth rate in the second quarter, up from 1.8% on May 1. At the same time, expectations that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates much higher has created a better backdrop for investors, he said.

☆ Yen sinks to 15-year low vs euro as dovish BOJ contrasts with ECB
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen continued its steep descent on Tuesday, reaching a 15-year low to the euro, as the implications of a steadfastly dovish Bank of Japan kept foreign exchange markets busy engaging in so called ‘carry-trades’. FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The euro was steady at 150.965 yen after earlier touching 151.03 for the first time since September 2008. The greenback was about flat at 137.375 yen, and earlier rose to 137.58 for the first time since March 8. At the RBA, traders are laying 87% odds for no change to policy, although about 11 bps of tightening is priced for the August meeting.

☆ Yen sinks to 15-year low vs euro, Aussie jumps as central banks diverge
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen continued its steep descent on Tuesday, reaching a 15-year low to the euro, as the implications of a steadfastly dovish Bank of Japan continued to reverberate days after the decision. FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationMeanwhile, the Aussie dollar leapt to a one-week high after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised with a rate hike and signalled more tightening may come. The central bank lifted the cash rate to 3.85% and said “some further” tightening may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe. The European Central Bank (ECB), meanwhile, is widely expected to raise rates for a seventh straight meeting the following day, with a 50 basis-point increase on the table.

☆ Goldman Sachs was fined $3 million after it mixed up millions of 'short' sale orders as 'long.' The culprit was one missing line of code.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Finra fined Goldman Sachs $3 million for mixing up 60 million short sale orders. Goldman Sachs had mismarked "short" sales orders totaling more than 14 billion shares as "long" sales orders between October 2015 and April 2018, per the filing, which was signed by both, Finra and the investment banking giant. Of the 60 million incorrectly marked orders, Goldman Sachs executed nearly eight million, Finra said. Further, Goldman's mismarked orders led to 12,335 short orders being executed while a short-sale circuit breaker was in place, per the filing. Insider was unable to reach Goldman Sachs via phone lines outside regular business hours.

Europe-wide inflation data is due at 0900GMT. French inflation data on Friday also came in a whisker above expectations, and Dutch inflation also rose. "Inflation data in the eurozone will be an important driver, (for the euro)" said Francsco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, who expects the euro to reach $1.10 some time next week, after consolidating today. The dollar has also been dragged back as the focus on the U.S. banking sector in March caused U.S. interest rate markets to dramatically reprice the outlook. Both currencies found support from expanding Chinese manufacturing activity, though data on Friday showed the pace was slowing down.

The remainder was equity checks by the private equity firms. Typically, debt accounts for between 60% and 80% of the deal consideration, allowing the buyout firms to juice returns. REFINANCING RISKTo be sure, a handful of private equity firms have already been accustomed to this kind of refinancing risk. An upside to the shift toward equity financing, dealmakers say, is that the companies owned by the private equity firms have more cushion to absorb losses if their business deteriorates. Many of the leveraged buyouts that became bankruptcies in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis were the result of private equity firms saddling companies with debt to the hilt.

Worries about potential contagion had also slammed bank shares in Asia and Europe as investors re-examined their risks, despite assurances from U.S. President Joe Biden and other global policymakers that the financial system is safe. In Europe, where some see lenders as less vulnerable, the banking index (.SX7P) first fell then recovered to rise 2.7%. Asian banking stocks had extended their declines overnight, with Japanese banks hard-hit despite reassurances from the Bank of Japan said about their capital buffers. Regulator FDIC had moved swiftly to close New York's Signature Bank SBNY.O as well as taking control of SVB. Citing people familiar with the matter, the WSJ said the investigators are also examining stock sales that SVB Financial Group's executives made days before SVB failed, adding that the Justice Department's probe involves the department's fraud prosecutors in Washington and San Francisco.

Banking giants Citi (C.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N) and JP Morgan (JPM.N) were also 1%-3% higher in the pre-market. Japanese financial institutions have sufficient capital buffers to absorb losses caused by external factors, including risks caused by SVB's collapse, the Bank of Japan said. Traders currently see a 50% chance of no rate hike at that meeting, with rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year. The prospect of higher rates had been "the reason investors have been really excited about Japan bank stocks", Ikeda added. We just ask for a little bit of time because of the volume," FDIC employee Luis Mayorga told waiting customers.

[1/2] Customers wait in line outside a branch of the Silicon Valley Bank in Wellesley, Massachusetts, U.S., March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Brian SnyderMarch 14 (Reuters) - Silicon Valley Bank's collapse continued to pound global bank stocks on Tuesday as investors fretted over the financial health of some lenders, despite assurances from U.S. President Joe Biden and other policymakers. The European banks index (.SX7P) fell 0.6% after posting its biggest percentage loss in more than a year on Monday. "Bank runs have started (and) interbank markets have become stressed," said Damien Boey, chief equity strategist at Sydney-based investment bank Barrenjoey. The prospect of higher interest rates had been "the reason investors have been really excited about Japan bank stocks", Ikeda added.

"Bank runs have started (and) interbank markets have become stressed," said Damien Boey, chief equity strategist at Sydney-based investment bank Barrenjoey. A furious race to reprice interest rate expectations also buffeted markets as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to hike next week. Traders currently see a 50% chance of no rate hike at that meeting, with rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year. The prospect of higher interest rates had been "the reason investors have been really excited about Japan bank stocks." After marathon weekend talks, HSBC HSBA.L said it was buying the British arm of SVB for one pound ($1.21).

☆ Analysis: Wall Street heavyweights warn against ‘Goldilocks’ hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The odds are “too high on Goldilocks; there’s still no easy way out,” analysts at BoFA Global Research wrote on Tuesday. Stocks tend to perform poorly in economic downturns, with the S&P 500 falling an average of 29% during recessions since World War Two, according to Truist Advisory Services. Those rebounds inevitably crumbled, leaving the S&P 500 with a 19.4% annual loss, its worst since 2008. The most recent rally has lifted the S&P 500 more than 11% from its October lows. Strategists polled by Reuters at the end of 2021 saw the S&P 500 gaining a median of 7.5% last year.

☆ Stocks week ahead: How the midterms could affect Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Investors are more than happy when politicians bicker but don’t actually enact any new laws that may hurt corporate profits. If Republicans get the House, tax hikes are dead in the water,” said David Wagner, a portfolio manager with Aptus Capital Advisors. That’s because there are some areas of consensus for the White House and Republican lawmakers. Congress and the White House may spend more time bickering than trying to pass legislation. Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene said on a conference call last week about the midterms that stocks have historically gone up after elections, no matter which party controls the White House and Congress.

☆ BOJ keeps ultra-low interest rates, defies global tightening trend
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But the central bank revised up its price forecasts through 2024 and warned that risks were skewed to the upside, nodding to recent signs that inflationary pressure was broadening. "Accelerating underlying inflation is expected to heighten medium- and long-term inflation expectations ... and lead to sustained price rises accompanied by wage gains," it said. As widely expected, the BOJ left unchanged its -0.1% target for short-term interest rates and a pledge to guide the 10-year bond yield around 0%. The central bank also maintained its dovish guidance projecting that short- and long-term rates will remain at "present or lower levels." In a sign of its concern over global recession fears, however, the BOJ cut its economic growth forecasts for fiscal 2022 and 2023.

☆ BOJ ramps up bond buying ahead of policy meet, yields fall sharply
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Junko Fujita | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The 20-year JGB yield slipped 8.5 bps points to 1.110%, its lowest since Oct. 18. "The market sentiment was good today as U.S. Treasury yields fell overnight so JGB yields would have fallen anyway," said Naka Matsuzawa, a strategist at Nomura Securities. Yields on shorter end notes also fell on Wednesday, with the two-year JGB yield retreating 1 bps to -0.025%. The BOJ offered to buy 350 billion yen ($2.36 billion) of bonds with 10- and 25-year maturities, up from 250 billion yen it had planned. The BOJ said it would also buy 575 billion yen of bonds with 3- to 5-year maturities, up from a planned 475 billion yen, and 150 billion yen of bonds with maturities more than 25 years, up from 100 billion yen.

☆ How much ‘pain’ is the Fed willing to inflict? Wednesday’s rate hike will offer clues
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged the economic pain this rapid tightening regime may cause. A larger hike is possible, but unlikelySome economists even expect the Fed to implement a massive — and historic — full-point rate hike on Wednesday. It meant that people understood the seriousness of the Fed’s commitment to getting inflation rates back down to 2%, he said. They want higher bond yields,” former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley told CNN back in May. The Federal Reserve announces its rate hike decision Wednesday at 2 p.m.

☆ Premarket trading: It's getting late in the game. Will the Fed risk a Hail Mary?
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Markets plummeted as the report stoked fears that the central bank and Chair Jerome Powell would decide to hike rates more aggressively, inflicting serious economic pain. Investors are putting the odds of a three-quarter percentage point hike next week at 75%, according to CME FedWatch data. The odds for a full point hike are hovering around 25% in the wake of the inflation report, up from 0% one week ago. It meant that people understood the seriousness of the Fed’s commitment to getting inflation rates back down to 2%, he said. “I wouldn’t discount a 100 basis point rate hike,” Marvin Loh, senior strategist at State Street, told me.

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